Kathmandu: Nepal’s population is projected to reach 33.5 million by 2108, an increase of 4.3 million from the current 29.2 million, according to the National Statistics Office (NSO). The projection is based on thematic reports from the 2021 census, which indicate a declining population growth rate.
NSO estimates the annual growth rate will fall from 1.94% to between 0.35% and 0.55% over the next 30 years due to lower fertility rates. The total fertility rate has dropped to 1.72, below the replacement level, with more young people delaying marriage and opting for fewer children.
The report also highlights shifting demographics, with an increasing elderly population and a decline in the working-age group due to migration. The absent population, primarily young men, is expected to rise from 1.82 million to 2.5 million by 2108.
Meanwhile, life expectancy is projected to improve, reaching 77 years, though men’s life expectancy will remain lower than women’s. Officials stress that the findings will help guide policy, particularly in health, migration, and economic planning.